Dansgaard-Oescher cycles and the Thermohaline Circulation

Let's have a look at the last record again:

(Rahmstorf, 2002)

We see that all Dansgard-Oescher (D/O) cycles happen during the big glacial period. So one hypothesis that scientists came up with believes that the triggering of the cold drops could be due to ice bergs. The large amounts of ice rafted debris (IRD, see last posts info box) on the ocean sea floor suggest that big pieces of sea ice broke off the big Laurentide ice sheet sitting on top of North America and the big Scandinavian ice sheet located on top of Scandinavia and Northern Europe, and floated southwards on the Atlantic Ocean. Of course ice sheets are much colder than liquid water, so melting must have happened fast. Hence, large amounts of freshwater were released to the North Atlantic changing the salt content within the water.

From the last posts, we know this implies a reduction of North Atlantic deep water formation and hence a weakening of the whole Atlantic THC!

Models indeed show that input of freshwater to the North Atlantic leads to a weakening of the Atlantic circulation. However, many factors, such as amount, rate and location of freshwater input, seem to influence how drastic this weakening is (Ganopolski &, Rahmstorf, 2001; Clark et al., 2002; Hu et al., 2008). Also, many model runs suggested other earth compartments to play a role in the global distribution of cooling by changing wind, rain and evaporation patterns (Clark et al., 2001).

So, sadly the answer is not so simple. If models show something, does that mean it really happened?

Blunier et al. (1998) may have found the missing link when they were comparing ice core records in the Arctic with the Antarctic. They simply plotted both temperature curves on the same time scale (not as simple if you have to do it….) and saw that both records unexpectedly did not line up. When the arctic temperatures were cold, the Antarctic temperatures were warm and vice versa. This was not the case for all D/O cycles, but very distinct for few. How could that be possible?

During the same year, Stocker (1998) proposed the solution: the Atlantic circulation. We all profit from the heat the Gulf Stream constantly transports to the north. However, we tend to forget that the heat is actually stolen from the southern Hemisphere. If we compare heat transports in other oceans, heat north of the equator goes north, while heat south of the equator goes south. Contrary, in the Atlantic heat goes north no matter where it is located, due to the THC.

What Stocker is implying for the D/O events is that a cooling in the North Atlantic will lead to more ice bergs melting and more freshwater input. This will weaken the THC and slow down heat piracy from south to north. As a result, the southern hemisphere will end up with more heat, leading to a warming in the south, while there is a cooling in the north. This process of the thermal bipolar-see saw (or sea saw) can be found in actual climate models (i.e. Stenni et al., 2011) as well as in climate models (Seidov& Maslin, 2001).

As a summary we can conclude that obviously Atlantic THC played a major role in forming the D/O cycles. 
However what actually induced climate to change is still discussed. Some say solar insolation gave the first initial forcing (i.e. Cruz et al., 2005), some say the changes in Atlantic circulation can explain the climate changes (Seidov& Maslin, 2001).  
Still, then what changes the THC? 
Ice volume… what changes ice volume? ..... You see the problem.

...

When could the Thermohaline circulation have shut down during the last 100,000 years?

Last time we found a record showing temperature differences from today over the last 100 000 years. Now let’s see whether we can find possible THC-shutdown incidences…

On the first blink, the temperature record just looks like a sequence of undefinable scribbles. However, we have to bear in mind that those scribbles show temperature dropping and rising again within less than 100 years! From roughly 70 000 to 100 000 years ago, the scribbles are rather boring and show no significantly extreme changes. But the time from 10 000 to 60 000 years ago shows a row of very extreme changes over only short periods of time. These could possibly give us insights into ocean circulation changes.

The first question: do we see those extreme temperature changes also in the Atlantic Ocean?

Yes we do! Look at this record found by Grootes et al.(1993) in the GISP2 Greenland ice core (blue line) and another one found by Sachs & Lehman (1999) in a subtropical North Atlantic deep sea sediment core (green line) for the last 60 000/30 000 years:

(Rahmstorf, 2002)

Looking at all those rapid climate change events more closely, scientists have found out that there are two distinct happenings which keep showing up in the record. They named one set Dansgaard-Oescher cycles (event 1-20) and Heinrich events (event H1-H5).

Daansgard-Oescher cycles are characterized as being high frequency climate oscillations (Maslin et al., 2002). The short warm phases appear in the ice core records as 5-10 degree warming phases within only a few decades. At first, cooling is happening gradually, then abrupt over less than 30 years (Rahmstorf, 2002). Both records show the D/O cycles, meaning that the rapid warming/cooling was not confined to the North Atlantic, but happened across the whole ocean. However in sediment records the cold phases are recorded, since substantial layers of ice rafted debris (IRD, see INFO BOX) show up in the record (Maslin et al., 2002). A study done by Voelker et al.(2002) shows that evidence actually exists throughout the globe making this a significant global climate event.

Here we have our first candidate. Could it be possible that changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation caused these abrupt climate events?

The next question is: how?


Could you imagine how the THC can collapse? Post your ideas :)

( Info Box links: Bond et al. 1992; Bond & Lotti 1995; Alley & Macayeal 1994)

The 1 million "currency" question:

The one question everyone is currently worrying about in terms of global warming:

Could our release of greenhouse gases and the current increase in global mean temperatures lead to a shutdown of the THC and would this send the whole of Europe and North America into ice age like conditions?

 

(btw if you think this "freeze" is completely overexaturated.... check out the FUN FACT about Brinacles! ;) )

To investigate this question, we will take a paleoclimatic approach and look back in time to see whether the THC has shut down before, under which circumstances it does this, and what the consequences were for the North Atlantic region.

But then, where do we search? 1000 years ago? 100 000 years ago? 1 million? When the Earth was created??....

Let’s review what we know about the THC (see other posts):

-          It is sensitive to temperature and salt content (deep water production)

-          Heat is transported from south to north via currents

-          Currents may flow very fast

-          The mixing time for the whole world ocean is roughly 1000 years

-          We believe that changes called rapid climate changes are connected to ocean circulation

This gives us the hint that turning off the THC probably will happen on a rather short geological time scale. So luckily, we do not have to travel back to the Earth’s first birthday. However, 1000 years might be too short aswell, since one water drop needs this long to have gone through the whole conveyor belt system. So we expect to find something in the 100 000 year range!

Now we just need data! And if we look around the world, there are an uncountable number of archives that have recorded the last 100 000 years of climate! Especially important are ice cores! (for more information see SCIENCE FACT). Ice cores on Antarctica go back 800 000 years (Luthi et al.,2008)! Greenland ice does not reach back that far, but still enough to cover our period of interest (Svensson et al., 2008). The great thing about ice cores is that little bubbles of air have been trapped in the ice (Alley, 2000). With careful extraction, you can get an air sample from the 400 000 year old atmosphere! You gotta admit... that's pretty cool!

And this is what we are going to look at. Here you see "real" temperature values for the last 100 000 years:

(Ganopolski & Rahmstorf, 2001)

Let me know what you see/feel/think/notice!

Downwelling and deep water formation – what drives the THC

As we have seen in previous posts, ocean water reaches higher densities the colder and saltier it gets. Thus, to find significant areas of downwelling, we have to look for places on the globe, where ocean water is made particularly cold and salty. This leads us to the poles.

Both the Arctic and Antarctic have the potential to cool water to minimal temperatures. In the Antarctic, waters under ice sheets may lose so much heat, that the process is referred to as super-cooling. Through ocean gyres [info box], water is brought to the surface and cooled via convection by releasing heat to the atmosphere. Due to its lower temperature, the water mass will increase its density and sink to the bottom, where it is pushed away from the creation center by following water masses. The conveyor belt is moving.

Simply cooling water down will not lead to particularly dense waters. Parallel to the temperature loss, salinity needs to be increased. This is mainly possible by taking away water, but leaving the salts behind. Hence, the left behind water mass will become more saline.

There are two main processes that will accomplish the above: evaporation and ice formation.

Through evaporation, water will be removed from the oceans and enters the atmosphere as vapor. Since most salt particles are too heavy, they will be left behind. Ice formation leads to a similar process. By freezing ocean water, fresh water is taken out of the water mass, while the salts stay behind. This process is referred to as brine rejection.

Deep water formation in the Antarctic: Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)

There are several places around the Antarctic continent where deep water formation takes place. The most famous one is the Weddell Sea, where the Atlantic Ocean hits Antarctica. Deep water formation in Antarctica is mainly connected with heat loss and brine rejection. Large year round ice sheets cool the surrounding ocean water to up to minimum temperatures of -2.2°C and increase their salinity by constantly freezing more water. This leads to the AABW being the coldest and densest water mass on earth.

Deep water formation in the Arctic: North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)

In the Arctic, most downwelling is happening in the Barents Sea, Greenland Sea and Labrador Sea. Here, convection and mixing are the two most important processes. As explained above, gyres transport water to the surface and cool it there. In difference to the Antarctic, the Arctic ice is purely sea ice with no underlying continental mass. Thus, many areas experience a great fluctuation in ice amount with no ice during summer and little during winter. The cold open oceans lead to extreme heat loss (no sea ice that protects the upper water layer) that rapidly cools down water masses. In a complicated mixing process, many different water masses with different densities form the NADW which leaves the Arctic to flow southwards as the Atlantics deep water flow. When it reaches Antarctica, it mixes with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which flows all around the South Pole and the Antarctic’s AABW. From there, the new water mass intrudes other ocean basins and connects the Atlantic with other world’s oceans.

You might have noticed that there is no particular process to enhance salinity in the Arctic. Under certain circumstances the mixing of all those different water masses may lead to higher salinity, but the most important process is actually happening long before the water reaches the Arctic: Evaporation of large amounts of water at the equator and the subtropics.

Due to the Hadley Cell and the Coriolis force [info box], these large amounts of water vapor are transported east across the Atlantic and across Middle America. The flat topography of Middle America allows the water masses to be exported straight into the Pacific, which means that the Atlantic loses large amounts of water which are not coming back (Richter & Xie, 2010). The only way to counterattack this water export is by importing fresh water through river outflows. However, looking at the Atlantic, only few large rivers (e.g. the Amazon) enter the Atlantic with significant freshwater inputs. When calculating the difference of input and output, we see that the Atlantic is losing more than it gains. Thus, the water masses flowing northwards become saltier. 

By the time they reach the Arctic deep water formation places, the salt content is high enough to form deep water merely by lowering temperature.

[All of the above named processes are well described in van Aken (2007) The OceanicThermohaline Circulation, An Introduction. Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesLibrary, Vol. 39 or Talley et al. (2011) Descriptive Physical Oceanography: An Introduction, 6.Ed.]

What is Ocean Circulation and how does it work?

During your last read you have found out that Ocean Circulation may answer your question of how rapid climate changes can occur.In the next few sessions an important and famous scientist will help us understand how Ocean Circulation and Climate are interconnected.

Nothing in nature is static. Everything moves, forms and reforms constantly throughout the geological timescale. Constant movement is also found in the world’s oceans. Due to wind, rain and evaporation (e.g. Richter & Xie, 2010; Clark et al., 2002) water is being moved in, out and within each large mass of water. In certain location this movement becomes directed and forms large ocean currents flowing past landmasses and through continent openings. This whole system consisting of many directed flows of current is referred to as ocean circulation.

In 1982, a scientist by the name of W.S. Broecker published his first idea of what the global ocean circulation may be like. He thought of ocean circulation as a conveyor belt transporting water along a route through all world oceans and back to its original position. This means that oceans throughout the earth are interconnected. Thus, changing the climate in one place will automatically influence the whole Earth.

The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, taken from W.S. Broecker's "The biggest chill" (1982)

However, as young critical scientists you have to ask Mr. Broecker one particular question to verify his hypothesis: what are the important factors that drive and influence the ocean conveyor belt?

If you have an idea, post your answer below.

Here is the Answer: Abrupt Climate Changes

Last posted question:

What is the difference between warming phases and cooling phases?

Here is the answer:

During cooling phases, the Earth tends to gradually cool down over a period of thousands of years. In contrast, warming phases happen over a few centuries! 

This discovery has put scientists infront of a difficult question: Slow climate changes are explainable with extraterrestrial forcing through the Milankovich cycles, but how do we explain those observed rapid climate changes?

When reconstructing climate, it is important to look not only at one component (eg the atmosphere) or one resource (eg ice cores), but many possible variables.
Thus, let’s have a look at a different climate record that highlights another component: coral reefs in the ocean:

Sea level fluctuation time series reconstructed from coral reef terraces, taken from Siddall et al. (2003)

When looking at past sea level stands we see almost identical fluctuation structures in the ocean compared to the fluctuations of temperature or greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Thus, mechanisms for changing climates may not only be found in the atmosphere, but also in the oceans.

And here is the big clue: Ocean Circulation is believed to be one possible mechanism that may trigger these otherwise unexplainable abrupt climate changes!

Now what?

Ok now what? 

Have you ever wondered about the actual scientific consensus on the doom stories known about climate change and ocean circulation?

Well you have found the right place! Together with me and many other people, you will find out about the scientific base that lies underneath the ocean circulation theory.

Come by each week and learn about ocean circulation, the conveyor belt model, the threshold hypothesis, future projections and ways of doing climate research.